SQ009's Money Blog

Singapore adjusting to sagging economy - 14 Dec 08

2008-12-14T14:30:00.000+08:00

Lady Luck turns against Sands

2008-11-14T02:00:00.000+08:00

Las Vegas Sands Raises $2.14 Billion in Capital, Suspends Macau Construction

2008-11-12T13:07:00.000+08:00

Bernanke signals possible rate cut

2008-10-08T10:45:00.001+08:00

U.S. Economy Just How Scared Should You Be?

2008-07-15T01:17:00.000+08:00

Are More Banks About To Go Belly Up?

2008-07-14T00:15:00.001+08:00

Fed Cuts Again... Watch Out

2008-05-01T02:33:00.001+08:00

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve lowered its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2 percent, the seventh cut since the onset of a global credit squeeze that's eroded economic growth. ``The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting today in Washington. ``The committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.'' While a nine-month contraction in credit and soaring fuel prices have pushed the economy to the edge of recession, confidence has begun to return to financial markets. Inflation expectations are also picking up, driven by near record prices for oil and higher food expenses. ``Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters,'' Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues said in the statement. Oil prices marched to another record high of $119.93 a barrel on April 28. The Fed said indicators of inflation expectations have risen. ``The committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting the projected leveling- out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization,'' the Fed added. ``It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully,'' the Fed said. Uncertainty about prices ``remains high.'' At the same time, the economy is faltering. Hours before the Fed decision, the Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product increased at an annual pace of 0.6 percent last quarter. Spending by households, the biggest part of the economy, grew at the slowest pace since 2001, when the U.S. economy was in a recession. Discount Rate The Fed Board of Governors also voted to lower the discount rate, the cost of direct loans from the central bank, to 2.25 percent. Officials reduced the normal 1-point spread over the federal funds rate in August to a half point to ease liquidity constraints. They further narrowed the difference on March 16, in the first weekend emergency move since 1979. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser dissented from today's decision, preferring no change. They also objected to last month's reduction. Central bankers have reduced the interbank lending rate 2.25 percentage points in 2008 with a series of aggressive rate actions, including two three-quarter point cuts and one half- point cut prior to today's move. In addition, the Fed resorted to an emergency authority in March and opened a direct loan window for investment banks. Creaking Into Life The actions have reduced risk premiums for financial firms, and stock prices have climbed since the previous Fed meeting on March 18. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has rallied since Fed officials last met. Yields on five-year obligations of Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage company, have fallen to 0.56 percentage points over Treasury notes of similar maturity, down from 0.90 percentage point. ``Credit markets seem to have stabilized in most areas,'' Brian Sack, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington, said before the meeting. ``We believe that the Federal Open Market Committee is ready to slow the pace of its actions.'' The world's biggest financial companies have posted at least $312 billion in writedowns and credit losses tied to U.S. mortgage markets as of April 28. U.S. foreclosure filings more than doubled in the first quarter as payments rose for subprime adjustable mortgages. One in every 194 U.S. households, or 650,000 properties, were in some stage of foreclosure during the quarter, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc., a vendor of data. Hastening Inflation While easing borrowing constraints, the central bank has also pushed money market yields below inflation, giving consumers an incentive to spend or take on more risk in their investments to earn a return. The Fed's preferred inflation barometer, the personal consumption expenditures price index, minus food and energy, rose at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the first quarter. Six-month Treasury bills yield 1.7 percent. Five-year-ahead inflation expectations measured by the Reuters/University of Michigan survey rose to 3.2 percent April, the highest level since October 2005. ``If they do lose credibility as an inflation-fighting institution, they will find it much harder to do anything,'' James Hamilton, an economist at the University of California, San Diego, said in a television interview before the meeting. ``It is a slope you do not want to start sliding down, and I am afraid the Fed has already started.'' Meanwhile, housing markets are still in a slump. Home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell in February by the most on record. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 12.7 percent from the same month a year earlier, the most since the figures were first published in 2001. Builders broke ground on 947,000 new homes at an annual rate in March, the fewest since March 1991.

No-Boundaries Food Crisis! Prices Streak Skyward!

2008-04-24T12:38:00.001+08:00

SQ009 workshop

2008-04-24T12:28:00.003+08:00

I apologize for the delay in workshop, as I faced certain health problems.

All is fine now and my workshop is back.

Venues are a little pricey during this peak season, so i will rent a room from my office. Save money save money. And they will be split into 2 half day courses from 1pm to 5pm. Drinks, snacks, writing materials and notes will be provided.

2 workshops as below:

3rd May:

- starting out in TA
- Basic Chart Reading
- The Psychology behind the charts
- Identifying basic trends and patterns
- Trading strategies and money management

10th May:

- Deeper into TA charts and patterns
- Making use of indicators (and how to avoid newbie mistakes)
- Application of TA and introduction of FA
- Understanding the macro market, how to look at other markets to determine your strategy

The address will be:

1 Keong Saik Road (opp Ebay and at cross junction)
nearest MRT will be tanjong pagar & Outram (walkable distance)

Time:

1pm-5pm

Things to bring:

Yourself

Workshop Fees:

$20 per day. If coming for both days, will be $30 (tried to make it as cheap as possible le)

Please Email to sq009@hotmail.com

PS: If you feel that you've learnt nothing throughout the 2 workshops, do let me know, I will refund you your money.

sq009

Super Rich: The Greed Game

2008-04-16T10:42:00.001+08:00

58 min 16 sec

2008-04-07T10:56:00.001+08:00

Market Bottom?

Friday announcement of job data reflected that it was the worse in 5 years with a loss of approximately 80,000 jobs in the US. However Dow Jones showed resilience to downside movements.

The main question to most traders will be – Is this truly the bottom?

Catching bottoms by itself is a very risky strategy to adopt. Imagine 2 scenarios: Buy low and sell high and buy high sell higher. Both method works very well, but I would favor the latter as no one can really predict the bottom of the market.

A typical scenario would be September 11 – After market resumes trading, the stock market rose 15% in 4 trading days (after the giant plunge). The rise was expected to be a ‘recovery’, however after ‘bargain hunting’, the market continued its downtrend and Greenspan cut the interest rates over and over again to bail out failed companies. This was also the start of the declination of USD.

So, market really hit the bottom? Personally I wouldn’t bet my money on it, although things may be cheap. Bottom or not, with the correct investment strategy, we can all profit from this market.

Good luck to all traders~

SQ

Catch the rest of the discussion here: http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?t=140743

GOLD VS DOLLAR

2008-04-07T10:55:00.000+08:00

Stocks drift on recession talk

2008-04-03T23:24:00.001+08:00

How to use MetaStock to give you a winning edge?

2008-04-01T12:20:00.000+08:00

One of the feedback for the course is that it is too long.
So I have decided to take out the my trading system module and teach it on a later time.This course is suitable for beginner and those who want to know more how to fully benefit from Metastock .

How to use MetaStock to give you a winning edge?

This is the course content
SESSION 1 INTRODUCTION TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1.1 DEFINITION
1.2 ASSUMPTION OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1.3 TECHNICAL VS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
1.4 DOW THEORY – 6 TENETS
1.5 QUIZ

SESSION 2 CHARTS BASIC
2.1 TYPES OF CHARTS
2.2 TIME FRAME
2.3 3 TYPES OF TRENDS
2.4 SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LINE
2.5 TRENDLINES
2.5 HANDS ON PRACTICE ON PAPER

SESSION 3 CHART PATTERNS
3.1 2 TYPES OF CHART PATTERNS: REVERSAL AND CONTINUATION
3.2 6 PRIMARY POINTS COMMON TO ALL REVERSAL PATTERNS
3.3 REVERSAL PATTERN AND CONTINUATION PATTERN
3.4 THE IMPORTANCE OF VOLUME
3.5 FINDING A PRICE OBJECTIVES
3.6 HANDS ON PRACTICE ON PAPER

SESSION 4 INDICATORS
4.1 3 TYPES OF INDICATORS
4.2 TREND-FOLLOWING INDICATORS
4.3 OSCILLATORS
4.4 QUIZ
4.4 HANDS ON PRACTICE

SESSION 5 CANDLESTICK PATTERNS
5.1 BASIC CANDLESTICKS
5.2 CANDLE PATTERN ANALYSIS – REVERSAL AND CONTINUATION PATTERNS
5.3 QUIZ

SESSION 6 METASTOCK
6.1 CHARTING BASIC WITH METASTOCK
6.2 INDICATOR BUILDER
6.3 EXPLORATION
6.4 EXPERTS
6.5 SYSTEM TESTER

SESSION 7 MONEY MANAGEMENT
8.1 2 TRADING GAME
8.2 MUST FOLLOW RULES

SESSION 8 PUTTING ALL TOGETHER

9.1 REVIEW
9.2 CHECKLIST
9.3 TRADING JOURNAL

APPENDICES
1 INDICATORS GLOSSARY
2 CANDLESTICK PATTERN
3 CHART PATTERN

The course fee will be at $388 w/o Metastock software. If you want to include the Metastock software, It will be at $1069.
Note: if you were to buy Metastock directly from Phillip Cyberquote as a non-member ,it will be $866 and as member $799.

I am confident that this is worth your investment that I will give FULL 100% money-back guarantee.
Upon completing the entire course, if you feel that it is not worth your money. I will refund every cent to you. No question asked.

Email now to admin@collinseow.com with title heading: Metastock course with name , mobile number and email. Please indicate whether you want to include the Metastock.

Date : 18th Apr (7pm -10pm) 19th Apr (10am- 5 pm)
Place : to be confirmed

Bush on the economy

2008-03-27T22:51:00.000+08:00

Spot The Rubbish This Fella Is Talking

Bear Stearns and the Domino Effect

2008-03-24T23:05:00.000+08:00

Housing Crisis In US

2008-03-19T13:43:00.001+08:00

Warren Buffet Market Outlook

2008-03-18T03:15:00.001+08:00

George Soros - The Bubble of American Supremacy

2008-03-18T02:42:00.000+08:00

29 min video, watch when you guys are free... enjoy~

Jim Rogers Outlook

2008-03-18T02:34:00.001+08:00

How To Buy a House with No Money Down

2008-03-15T22:30:00.000+08:00

Go Go Cempaka!

2008-03-14T13:13:00.001+08:00

Need a favor~ Click on the link below and vote for Cempaka!

http://forum.shareinvestor.com/forum/showthread.php?t=3129

thanks~

SQ009

2008-03-13T11:30:00.001+08:00

2008-03-13T02:49:00.001+08:00

SQ 10 stocks

2008-03-06T00:02:00.005+08:00

SQ on the charts:

Counter-Long/Short-TP-CP
+ Remarks

Indoagri-Long-$4-$2.10
+ commodities play... continue to long till see reversal

Jardine C&C-Long-$21-$18
+ Surprising to see J C&C so strong, higher highs but care of wedge, go cautious long

Lian Beng-SHORT-$0.41 then $0.35-$0.55
+ Rising metal prices will affect LB's profit, broke long term trend, time to shoot it down

Noble-Long-$2.5-$2.1
+ up up and away! V strong, will be one of the biggest play in coming days. CHEONG AH

SGX-SHORT-$6-$9
+ Kah Kah Hoot, more room to fall, double crosses, not a good sign. Aim $6.80 then $6

ST Eng-Hold-$3.4 to $3.7- $3.2
+ Traditionally a defensive stock, recently showing some weaknesses, observe first, sidelining on this.

STX PO- Short - $2.7 - $3
+ Showing signs of weakness and a sell down is coming soon, if maintain above $2.70 can go cautious long

Wheelock-SHORT-$1.60 - $1.80
+VERY weak... close one eye and short.

Wilmar-Cautious Long-$4.80 (buy near $4) - $4.20 (if reverse from >$4.20)
+ Cautious Long please... also starting to show signs of weaknesses

YZJ-SHORT- 80c then 60c- $1
+ Dead cat bounce in betweens but having hamburger press formation. Short...

Armstrong - Observe (inclined to long) - $0.32 then $0.34 - $0.26
+ this chart very interesting, testing me... hahaha. This I will go long, taking a bet... indicators quite balanced but I'm inclined to long on this, if break 0.32, can cheong and aim 0.39.

2008-03-01T01:07:00.001+08:00

The Collapse Of The Dollar, Please Watch

2008-02-28T02:22:00.001+08:00

Stagflation, pls watch, important

2008-02-28T02:03:00.000+08:00

ceilings

2008-02-22T01:32:00.000+08:00

2008-02-17T15:42:00.001+08:00

The official definitions of stocks can be further classified into the following:

1. Growth Stocks
2. Income Stocks
3. Growth (moderate) and Income Stocks
4. Defensive Stock
5. Cyclical Stocks
6. Blue Chips
7. Speculative
8. Special Situation Stocks
9. Small and midsize company stocks (mid cap and pennies)
10. Foreign Stocks (like S shares)

Every stock will fall into one or more of the above mentioned categories.

But to make things easier to understand.

1. 'Needs' Stocks are stocks which are compulsory and needed in the market. Think of Warren Buffet investing in Gilette. In Singapore, 'Needs' stocks will be things like SMRT, Singpost and SPH

2. Renewable Biz stock: these kind of stocks will get renewable business regardless of market condition (its another term for defensive counters). Things like ST engineering, Vicom... etc

3. Monopoly quite easy to understand. Supply and Demand. The demand is there, but theres only one supply. So whoever controls the supply, controls the price. Things like SMRT

2008-02-15T16:04:00.000+08:00

Mr Speaker, Sir,

I beg to move that this Parliament approve the financial policy of the Government for the Financial Year 1 April 2008 to 31 March 2009.

(1) ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK

Economic Performance 2007

1.1 Our economy has done well over the past year. We had real growth of 7.7% in 2007, much higher than we had expected at the start of 2007. This was exceptional growth, and more so because it came after three previous years of strong growth.

1.2 The strong economy also brought unemployment down to 1.6% at the end of last year. Resident unemployment also fell sharply to 2.3%, the lowest level in a decade.

1.3 We have been aided by a favourable global environment. But Singapore?s strong growth in recent years has mainly been the result of our broad-ranging efforts to restructure our economy, labour market and fiscal system. This is not a story of an old economy growing quickly, but of a new economy emerging out of the old. It is about how we are attracting new and cutting edge investments, capitalising on opportunities in new growth industries and markets abroad, upgrading our workers' skills and competing at an advantage. Indeed this is why we have been growing much faster than other developed countries - faster than any other country with the same standard of living as us. Our policies are working well, the economy is restructuring, and we are delivering superior performance.

Fiscal Position in 2007

1.4 With stronger than expected economic growth in 2007, the projected Budget outturn improved significantly. We expect the Overall Budget Balance to be a surplus of $6.4 billion for Financial Year (FY) 2007, compared to the deficit of $0.7 billion that was originally projected.

1.5 We started the year expecting a growth rate of 4.5% to 6.5%, which was also in line with market forecasts. With actual growth at 7.7%, Corporate and Personal Income Taxes came in some $1.0 billion higher than projected. GST revenues also exceeded our projection by about $1.2 billion, mostly from higher consumption.

1.6 GST collection arising from the 2 percentage point hike in July is estimated at about $1.4 billion in total, which now just matches the size of the GST Offset Package and Workfare Income Supplement tranches that were distributed in FY2007.

1.7 However, the largest boost to revenues came from the exceptionally buoyant property market last year. Prices of private residential units rose by over 30%, much higher than industry forecasts of around 10% to 15% at the beginning of the year. The volume of property transactions went up by over 60%. Stamp duties consequently rose to an unprecedented $3.8 billion, $2.3 billion higher than expected. Other property related revenues were around $1.1 billion above projections. These were large gains, out of the ordinary, and which we cannot expect to see very often.

1.8 The overall budget surplus of $6.4 billion was therefore the result of a strong economy and property market. The surplus was also an appropriate fiscal stance to adopt, as it avoided adding further liquidity and stimulus to an already rapidly growing economy.

Economic Outlook for 2008

1.9 The key factor that will shape the growth of the Singapore economy in 2008 is the global economy, especially the state of the US economy. Many private forecasters now expect the US economy to enter a recession in the first half of the year, although it may be mild. If this happens, Asian exports will be affected. However, the IMF and other global forecasters still expect growth in Asia on the whole to remain healthy. China and India are expected to slow down, but still grow at 10% and 8% respectively on the back of strong domestic demand.

1.10 Overall, on all current indications of global conditions, we expect growth of 4.0% to 6.0% in the Singapore economy this year. This is lower than last year, but well in line with the economy's potential over the medium term. Our economic fundamentals remain strong. Our pipeline of manufacturing investments remains robust with EDB expecting $16 billion worth of investment commitments this year, on top of the same volume last year. Our services sector too is well-positioned for growth. While demand for services will depend on the growth of the region and the rest of Asia, we have gained significant mindshare as a global financial and business centre.

1.11 However, there are major downside risks to this year's forecast of growth. A sharper than expected decline in US growth could add to the turmoil in the financial markets, and deepen the credit crunch that is still unfolding. This will inevitably spill over to the Asian economies and markets, and our own growth will be impacted. The outcomes cannot be predicted, but we must be watchful of the risks and be ready to respond to them.

2008-02-15T11:17:00.001+08:00

Those keen on doing CPF investments before the 1st April lock in with SQ, please contact me before 12th March, as I will be away in Taiwan from 13th - 18th to meet a few client in Taipei.

(If u want to buy things from Taipwi can PM me also hahaha)

you can contact me via
email: sq009@hotmail.com
mobile: 9297 9453

testimonial~

2008-02-11T10:25:00.000+08:00

Archer

Joined: 29 Mar 2006
Posts: 475

Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:55 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hey guys,

thks for the excellent presentations earlier on.

l've learnt so much more abt TA, FA and the effects of rate cuts on macroeconomy, etc.

The seminar was well-structured and you guys took the effort to explain all the various concepts clearly.

Highly recommended for beginners like me.

cheers~

The Seminar

2008-02-09T13:15:00.000+08:00

Happy Lunar New Year

2008-02-07T17:52:00.001+08:00

Wish all investors and visitors a happy and prosperous lunar new year.

Bush's State Of Union Address

2008-01-30T00:18:00.000+08:00

2008-01-28T13:00:00.000+08:00

Good day all,

On 2nd Febuary there will be a full day seminar with 3 speakers covering macro economics, personal financial planning and Technical analysis (theory and market outlook)

Detail as follows:

Speakers:
1. Collin
2. Ken (RallyArtist)
3. Donald (sq009)

The schedule will be as follow:
10am - Registration
10.15am- Understanding the fundamentals of the market (an introduction to modern banking system)
11.00am- Investment Strategies and Investment Approach
12.00pm- Lunch (not provided)
1.00pm- Short Exercise on understanding your financial well being
2.00pm- An Introduction into TA (Basics of TA, by RallyArtist)
3.30pm- Market Outlook By Collin
5.00pm-End

Notes and Drinks will be provided, please bring along writting materials in case you need to take down any additional notes. Please also bring along your name cards (if any). Venue will be at TMC Academy (Walking distance from Cityhall MRT).

Seminar fee will be at $30 per person Interested please Email 1. Your Name 2. Your Contact Number 3. Number of people coming to admin@collinseow.com

财经新闻20080126

2008-01-26T14:21:00.000+08:00

Stocks pull plug on 2-day rally

2008-01-26T10:50:00.000+08:00

Bush Stimulus Plan ~ A Warning Sign

2008-01-25T09:23:00.001+08:00

Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration is close to
completing an economic-stimulus proposal that will include $800
rebates for individuals and $1,600 for households as well as tax
breaks for businesses, people familiar with the plan said.

The proposal is subject to revision as administration
officials consult with Republican and Democratic lawmakers in
Washington, the people said.

President George W. Bush will lay out the ``principles'' of
the economic package tomorrow, though it's ``too early'' to
unveil a final proposal, according to his spokesman, who declined
to provide details. Congressional leaders say a stimulus package
may be as much as $150 billion.

Bush, who returned last night from a trip to the Middle
East, has decided the U.S. needs short-term economic assistance
from the government to avert an election-year recession, White
House officials said earlier today.

``The president does believe that over the short term, to
deal with this softening of the economy, that some boost is
necessary,'' Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto told reporters at
a briefing. Bush won't press Congress to extend the tax cuts
passed during his first term and set to expire in 2010 as part of
the plan.

``The President supports a permanent extension of his tax
cuts, and he supports a short-term growth package, but they are
separate,'' Fratto said.

Planning

White House and Treasury officials have been working since
late November on the outlines of a plan to stave off a recession
or ameliorate the effects if one occurs.

The plan the administration is close to proposing includes a
temporary elimination of the bottom tax rate, which is now 10
percent, and a consequent lump-sum rebate to all taxpayers,
according to the people.

Businesses would get a tax break under the plan that would
allow them to deduct 50 percent of the price of new equipment
they purchase this year. Small businesses would be able to deduct
as much as $200,000 in new equipment purchases, up from the
current $112,000 limit.

Asked about the details, a Treasury spokeswoman declined to
comment.

House Republican leader John Boehner told reporters in
Washington that a package of $100 billion to $150 billion is
being discussed by administration officials and lawmakers.

Democrats in Congress are working on their own stimulus
plan, which is also expected to include a tax rebate, as well as
public works spending and additional aid for the poor through
food stamps and other programs.

Bipartisan Support

The deteriorating economy has brought both parties to the
conclusion that legislation must be passed and implemented
quickly if it is to have any effect. The jobless rate rose to 5
percent in December from 4.7 percent a month earlier, and
economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and
Morgan Stanley say the U.S. is probably sliding into a recession.

Senator Hillary Clinton today increased the size of her
stimulus proposal, to $110 billion from $70 billion because of
signs of further weakness in the economy, according to a press
release. Clinton, of New York, and Senator Barack Obama of
Illinois, are the leaders in the race for the Democratic
presidential nomination. Both have proposed packages of measures
to boost the economy.

Arizona Senator John McCain, who's seeking the Republican
nomination, today announced an economic-growth plan that would
lower the corporate tax rate to 25 percent from 35 percent and
give other breaks to business. It avoided short-term stimulus.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told the House
Budget Committee in Washington today that a fiscal boost of as
much as $150 billion would help revive economic growth.

A package of $100 billion ``would certainly be measurable,
it would not be window dressing,'' said Bernanke.

SQ009 on rate cuts (part 2)

2008-01-20T16:46:00.000+08:00

Oil being traded in USD is beneficial for US economy, as every transaction will be in USD and floats back to New York Feds. However, this can also be an double edged sword in the above mentioned scenario.

The current fed cuts does boost exports. But its being overhyped by the media and the general public missed out the fact that it will only be a band aid solution. US had alternatives and better options, yet they chose the easy way out (which is to print money).

In world war 1 and world war 2. US abandoned the Gold reserve system and adopted the modern fractional banking system (system which allows you to print money from thin air). In fact, the warning signs are out, early in August last year when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke pumped money into the economy. Where does the money come from? (thin air). Therefore we do have a short rally... but it was by no means sustainable. And in subsequent rate cuts, we are brainwashed to believe that every rate cut there will be rally (but the reverse is true)

A rate cut not only did not solve the problem, it also re-introduce the sub prime and mortgage problem back into the picture. It is important for investors to understant the risk trade off for rate cuts.

Not all rate cuts are bad... but you have to compare the estimate growth to estimate losses if Fed does cut the rates. The current situation looks bleak and gloomy for US economy. Not forgetting the current debts US owe to the international community crossed 9trillion (with 1/3 contributed by the Bush administration)

sq009 view on rate cut and bush's economic relief plan

2008-01-19T23:12:00.000+08:00

I just do a quick simplified one, will explain more in the upcoming workshop:

First... Rate Cut:

No doubt rate cuts can boost exports, but lets look at rate cut from another angle. Oil prices is primarily driven by supply and demand, but lets not forget its also traded in USD. This is part of the reason why Oil crossed $100, as USD dilutes. So after a rate cut, USD dilutes boost exports... however energy prices also goes up... the world uses energy, oil producing nations will be forced to Increase supply to drive the price down (which is happening right now), and in turn, less money flow back to the US cos of the falling oil prices.

summary: Cut rates boost export, but the international pressure to keep oil price low while USD devaluates will drive US economy into a worse state.

Second, Bush's relief plan:

Bush's relief fund is primarily drawn from the government reserves. Thus, US is indirectly loaning money from China and Japan to fund its economy. By drawing money out from the government reserve (which is borrowed) they are landing themselves into a greater government debt. To solve this problem (for the short term) Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is forced to cut rates (aka print more money) to ease the current market situation (band aid solution).

summary: borrow money to return debt (imagine borrow from ah long to repay bank loans), not a good move... personal opinion.

Any valuable feedback is appreciated... so i can have another angle of approach.

Cheers~

Don

view the full discussion here: http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?t=120481

Stocks fall as Bush disappoints

2008-01-19T11:19:00.000+08:00

Citi losses send stocks tumbling

2008-01-16T22:46:00.000+08:00

2008-01-15T23:26:00.000+08:00

SQ: News out, lian beng moved, i sold... take profit...
9 Jan 08, 23:06SQ: Laselle news... Casino one i wait for news... got news i load, no news dare not... market too weak to fool around
9 Jan 08, 09:52Alan07: Thought it's good news for getting a new project? U mean the casino news is out?
9 Jan 08, 08:19SQ: News is out... Sold Lian Beng
3 Jan 08, 21:46SQ: Monitor Lian Beng movement, something's coming up... market still not v strong... sector play... const and energy/palm oil
3 Jan 08, 03:42Mr Lian Beng: hi SQ, in the CNA forum, you *cough cough* *Achoo~* a couple of times. Can you explain what's that?

Just one example:

Fortunately i took profit for Lian Beng... count myself lucky...

those vested, bet you guys heard rumours of casino IR. What i can say is, dun bang on the fact that they will secure. Previously it was CES hype, so dun count the chickens before they are hatched.

Trade at your own risk, this is just my personal opinion.

Past few days trading selectively now. Cannot fool around.

To my clients: please fix an appt with me to review your investments in lieu of market outlook for 2008.

MARKET UPDATE 1-14-08

2008-01-15T20:38:00.001+08:00

财经新闻20080115

2008-01-15T20:37:00.000+08:00

TA vid ~ Take as reference/education not as inducement

2008-01-12T18:40:00.000+08:00

2008-01-10T19:49:00.000+08:00

Lets look at 2 charts of Dow Jones:

Using Weekly Chart.

First chart shows 1 year channel broken and estimated fall of exhaustion gap based on 50% gapping rule. Used 2 fibo, one for wick and one for body. Estimated reversal point will be at 0% of fibo, highlighted in red

Second chart, quite obvious... Head and shoudlers formation. Neckline broken, trying hard to stay above... shall see whether will break convincingly...

2008-01-09T23:26:00.000+08:00

possible support turn resistance: indicated by brown arrowlow vol: indicated by red circle (lower low with low vol shows that market might reverse soon)broader market showing falling wedge: indicated by pink lines. (bullish signal, but not strong)RSI maintained above 30: bullish signal, but it will be a stronger bull signal if above 40.

2008-01-07T22:55:00.001+08:00

http://www.mojostock.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=91

one of my new home...

enjoy~

posted AIG global market outlook for 2008.

download from the link above, select SQ's macro Econs

No Posts

2008-01-07T13:59:00.000+08:00

Sorry for not posting for a few weeks... been rather busy...

Upcoming events include:

Know your Money/ Accessing your Financial well being

SQ009 TA course is back!!!

tentative date 26jan2008.
tentative venue: TMC academy, just beside cityhall MRT
Fee: $50 (drinks and notes provided, no meals)

will update this blog as and when its confirmed

2007-12-20T01:22:00.000+08:00

Yesterday bounce off 23.6 fibo...

today touch 38.2 and sell down...

looks worrying to me

STI update 13dec

2007-12-13T20:22:00.000+08:00

watch out for M & A pattern

or inverse H&S pattern...

currently STI touched 20 and 200MA and broke slightly...

Expecting more selling as RSI and slowstoch still pointing downwards

2007-11-30T19:13:00.000+08:00

1. Take note of the M formation, we are probably forming an A right now.
2. Take note of RSI, we've yet to cross 60, or even 50 to signal the return of the bulls
3. Same applies for slow stoch
4. We have 2 major MAs crossing over... 200Ma and 20Ma... its a crossover to watch out for, typically a high powered magnet to suck the index towards it.

'M' and 'A' formation is the important one to look out here

Be wary of the rebound

2007-11-26T23:16:00.000+08:00

Wave 4 of 5 waves down.

Touch 3500 be very wary.

100% Chance of Recession & Stock Market to Plunge 50-60%

2007-11-21T10:52:00.001+08:00

2007-11-16T13:39:00.000+08:00

From 16Nov - 30Nov I will start to accept new clients to prepare for 2008.

PM me if you are interested.

Lets aim for a win win situation

Clients will go through:

1. Financial check, i will provide 2nd opinions

2. Expense control monitoring

3. Free software to monitor expenses

4. Planning for the long term (target 10% per annum compounded)

5. Intro into property investment

6. Understanding your CPF (loopholes and how to maximise that dollar)

7. The money system - Introduction

8. Tips and tricks of investment

9. Bear proof your investment

If you need anything more, feel free to add in and i will try my best to assist you. Limit to 10 clients for 16Nov to 31Nov.

(7 slots taken... 3 left) 1. Miss K 2. Miss C 3. Mr K 4. Miss LP 5. Miss Cookie 6. Mr E 7. Mr A

Money, Banking and the Federal Reserve

2007-11-16T03:40:00.000+08:00

2007-11-15T21:54:00.000+08:00

STARCRUISE STARCRUISE STARCRUISE STARCRUISE STARCRUISE STARCRUISE STARCRUISE STARCRUISE STARCRUISE STARCRUISE STARCRUISE STARCRUISE STARCRUISE STARCRUISE STARCRUISE

2007-11-14T02:26:00.000+08:00

A post from fielders! Thanks for the compliment!!! Wish u huat huat

"But in general, i would agree with bro SQ009 that a 10-12% return p.a. would be considered good for a balanced portfolio. The most important thing is your asset allocation. Choose your asset classes carefully and you should be fine. Consider alternative investment such as commodities, real estate etc etc. Commodity is only getting popular for the past few yrs, but i ve been investing in commodities since early in my investment banking career.

I think bro Sq009 is on the right track with his investment approach. I have not paid attention to the other posters but i think bro sq009 is more qualified than the average poster here."

~ Fielders Bro

Fixed income

2007-11-14T02:18:00.000+08:00

someone in forum asked me about fixed income... lemme explain one of them

depends on what kind of fix income investment u looking for. I strongly discourage fixed deposits unless u have spare cash or your risk intake is very minimal. just to share with you one of the main fixed income.

Bonds:

Bonds usually acts inversely against the stock, they can be issued by companies or governments. U must also watch out for 'junk bonds' and bond ratings more or less useless hahaha... do own homework more important.

you can purchase bonds in many ways. Most commonly would be from open market, those will be considered secondary or 'recycled' bonds (dunnoe whats the real term, but i used that term for so long, stuck in my head) ok anyway... you can also purchase directly from companies issuing such bonds. Third you can also purchase unit trust and funds which invest in fixed incomes (again u must understand their operation and what kind of fixed income is being invested) Last but not least, make use of secondary tools to invest in bonds. One good way is insurance, insurance invest in approx 70%-80% bonds, that is why they are so sure of giving you a guaranteed return of approx 3.85% on average (my company gives 4.48%). The advantage of using such secondary tools is that the bonds purchased is cheap... the disadvantage is that it have to be kept for many many years (usually at least 20 years).

Some of my clients told me... i dun want insurance i just want fixed income investment... Sometimes when i look at their finances I also want them to have some insurance... if they dont like i will tell them "then benefeciary put my name, i let u earn the bond income" (they die i earn money hee hee hee, but in the end no one put my name... sob sob)

Bonds should be used in conjunction with your other investment as a hedge or long term retirement investment. You can either do a reverse funding, or you can do a lock in profit method way of investment for bonds. If u are familiar with the 4 beauties method and DCA method it will be very beneficial for such an investment

Enjoy the read!

(buy insurance look for me hor hahahaha)

understanding world trade organisation

2007-11-13T21:18:00.001+08:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Xp75Egtvi8

i cant post the video... so click on the link to view

I DID IT!!!

2007-11-13T05:21:00.000+08:00

Cant believe my own eyes when dow is down...

kinda worried when dow is down, at the same time im glad cos i managed to predict the move weeks back!!!

http://sq009.blogspot.com/2007/10/blog-post_28.html

click on the link to view my post on 28 Oct with dow charts posted

Woohoo~

2007-11-10T01:56:00.001+08:00

Change of location!!!

the TA outing location change to 1 Keong Saik Rd AIA building. Time still the same at 7.30pm

2007-11-09T13:13:00.000+08:00

My Whiteboard (Current Holdings @ Avg Px):

StarCruise @ 0.398

YongNam @ 0.375

Observe List:

1. EcoWise

2. Armarda

3. Indo Agri

4. YongNam

5. Genting

6. Sky Petrol *

7. China Oilfield *

Reuters on Dow's recovery

2007-11-09T13:11:00.000+08:00

2007-11-07T02:41:00.000+08:00

Wanxiang's chart... very very ugly. Bad closing today...

LianBeng's chart: Struggling to move higher. higher highs with decreasing volume, might see some pull backs towards 680-700 region.

CSC's 2 years chart with Head and shoulders pattern with steep neckline. Just watch out and be careful of this counter

2007-11-04T22:39:00.000+08:00

counters in my radar for coming week:

*in order of preference*

1. GuangZhao
2. JiuTian
3. Lian Beng
4. ChinaSports
5. StarCruise
6. Penguin
7. Jade
8. BakerTech

STI still under 20MA, Dow only managed to touch 50MA.

Play along with regional market, think the worse is not over yet.

petrodollar

2007-11-03T03:11:00.000+08:00

Watch this video to understand more about USD and Oil

Technical Analysis Stock Market Update 10-30-07

2007-10-31T17:45:00.001+08:00

2007-10-28T10:52:00.000+08:00

2007-10-28T03:02:00.000+08:00

click pic for a larger version

Reuters Business Week

2007-10-27T18:32:00.000+08:00

Wall Street banks on another rate cut

2007-10-27T15:48:00.000+08:00

Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve will decide on Halloween whether to lower interest rates again. Investors are betting on a quarter-point cut.

By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com editor at large
October 26 2007: 12:58 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- After reading the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, many on Wall Street concluded earlier this month that the central bank would not cut interest rates at its next meeting, a two-day session that wraps up Wednesday.
The consensus then was that the Fed's half of a percentage point cut on Sept. 18 may have done the job to get the credit markets and economy back on track. Fed chair Ben Bernanke & Co. had everything under control.

What a difference a few weeks make.
Big write-downs at Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500), Wachovia (Charts, Fortune 500), Washington Mutual (Charts, Fortune 500) and Merrill Lynch (Charts, Fortune 500), lay-offs in the mortgage and investment banking businesses of Bank of America (Charts, Fortune 500), a spate of disappointing third-quarter earnings beyond the finance sector and $90-plus oil have sparked new concerns about the health of the economy.

The return of credit crunch and liquidity fears had some investors so worried that there were even unsubstantiated rumors floating around Wall Street Wednesday that the Fed might step in and cut the discount rate - a largely symbolic interest rate that determines what banks pay to borrow from the Fed - before its scheduled meeting.
Now, investors are betting that it is certain the Fed will lower the target on the federal funds rate, an overnight bank lending rate that influences how much interest consumers pay for credit card borrowing, home equity lines of credit and auto loans, on Oct. 31.
Countrywide sees 4Q profit
And even though embattled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial (Charts, Fortune 500), which on Friday posted a $1.2 billion loss in the third quarter, predicted a return to profitability in the fourth quarter, one market strategist said there could be more bank bombshells. That's likely to keep the Fed in easing mode.
"With all the subprime and credit issues, it looks like there will be more problems to come. Combine that with the backdrop of weaker economic growth and my guess is that the Fed will cut rates again," said Phil Dow, director of equity strategy with RBC Dain Rauscher.
But how big of a Halloween treat is the Fed likely to give the markets? According to futures listed on the Chicago Board of Trade, traders are pricing in an 86 percent chance that the central bank will lower the fed funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 4.5 percent.
Investors have also priced in a 14 percent chance that the Fed will take even more drastic action, as it did in September, and cut rates by another half of a percentage point, to 4.25 percent.
Keith Hembre, chief economist with First American Funds, said that the Fed's hands are tied. He believes the Fed would prefer to not cut rates, especially since the rising price of oil and other commodities like gold could add to inflation pressures.
But he said the Fed won't want to make matters worse in the credit markets by shocking Wall Street with no rate cut. So he thinks a quarter-point cut is likely.
Oil continues record run -- tops $92
However, Hembre added that the Fed will then try to draw the line. He believes the central bank will say in its closely-watched statement that it is still worried about inflation - in an effort to convince the market that there may not be many, or any, more rate cuts in the immediate future.
"Fed members don't want to contribute to volatility in the market. And to the extent that the market is expecting a move, if a rate cut doesn't happen they would do that," Hembre said. "But they have other considerations as well."
David Wyss, chief economist with Standard & Poor's, also thinks the Fed will cut rates. He does not think the central bank needs to be as concerned about inflation as it does about the possibility of weak consumer spending ahead of the holidays.
But he added that the Fed may want to soon cut rates once more to ensure that the economy does not enter a recession in 2008.
"I think if they just do a quarter-point cut, they will leave the door open for more rate cuts in December or January," he said.
After the October meeting, the Fed's next meeting is scheduled for Dec. 11. Its first meeting of 2008 is a two-day session that concludes on Jan. 30.
Home sales: Worse than they seem
Wyss said that the Fed could comfortably lower rates to 4 percent without having to worry about a return of the "easy money" type of lending that got the financial services sector into this subprime mortgage mess in the first place.
Another market strategist pointed out though that the Fed needs to be careful.
"I don't think a second rate cut will be harmful, but I'm not entirely sure it will be particularly helpful in the long run either," said Steven Bleiberg, president and chief investment officer of Legg Mason Global Asset Allocation. "Cutting rates doesn't necessarily help clear up a bad debt problem, and can sometimes increase the likelihood of starting another asset bubble in some other area of the economy."
But Wyss argued that a fed funds rate between 4 percent and 4.5 percent would be in the so-called "neutral" range that should neither promote excessive growth and runaway inflation nor grind the economy to a halt.
Nonetheless, it is impossible to predict what the Fed might do in the coming months since it is not clear just how severe of an impact this summer's credit crisis is having on the economy.
"The Fed will be watchful of economic numbers. If the job numbers get better between now and December maybe they don't need to cut again," RBC's Dow said. "But we just don't know how much damage has been done yet."

Qian Hu

2007-10-26T01:18:00.000+08:00

Click on the pic to view a larger version

Market Update 10-23-07

2007-10-24T18:59:00.000+08:00

The article

2007-10-24T18:25:00.000+08:00

Training instructor's death: NSmen respond to online appeal
By David Boey
NSmen and netizens who responded to the online appeal remember 2nd Sgt Lim's quiet professionalism as he coaxed out-of-shape NSmen back on the road to physical fitness. --

CITIZEN soldiers have rallied to support the family of an army Physical Training Instructor (PTI) who died in an accident last Saturday, minutes away from his home.
Second Sergeant Lim Chee Wee, 23, did not have insurance coverage.
An appeal on Internet discussion groups quickly raised more than $1,300 for his family.
This does not include donations from a steady stream of Operationally Ready National Servicemen who turned up at 2nd Sgt Lim's wake at Jurong West, even though many of them did not know him personally.
One fund manager could not attend the wake personally but sent his driver with an undisclosed contribution.
Mr Donald Quek, 22, got the appeal going after he learnt during a Remedial Training session on Sunday that the army regular had died. RT sessions are physical training sessions conducted by the army for unfit soldiers.
'When I learnt that he had died without insurance and that his family is not well-off, I felt his family would need more help,'' said Mr Quek, an insurance agent.
Money continued to stream in on Wednesday even as his grief-stricken father, a bus driver, mother, a factory worker mother and 22-year-old brother bade him farewell in an emotionally-charged funeral at the void deck of the Lim's five-room HDB flat in Jurong West.
There was barely a dry eye among the scores of 2nd Sgt Lim's army mates who turned up for his funeral too.
Well-built and with a ready smile, the PTI had led RT sessions for hundreds of NSmen at Maju Camp, off Clementi Road.
NSmen and netizens who responded to the online appeal remember 2nd Sgt Lim's quiet professionalism as he coaxed out-of-shape NSmen back on the road to physical fitness.
He always had kind and encouraging words for slow runners and taught NSmen strength-building techniques so they could clock better run times during their army physical tests.
First Warrant Officer Lem Yew Teck, Officer Commanding of Maju Fitness & Conditioning Centre, said: 'I hear that NSmen especially liked him alot because he was willing to go the extra mile and see them through their training programme.'
2nd Sgt Lim's patience in arranging alternative physical training sessions for NSmen who missed their compulsory 4-hr sessions meant more work for himself.
Uncomplainingly, he ploughed through mounds of extra paperwork, slogging at his computer to complete documentation that had to be individually approved.
His extra effort to rescuedule NSmen's training saved many of them from being charged by the army for missing their RT sessions.
His superiors were so impressed with the young PTI's knack for motivating soldiers and his people-management skills that they hand-picked him to be a sports trainer for top officers such as Chief of Defence Force Lieutenant-General Desmond Kuek and Chief of Army Major-General Lim Neo Chian.
Last Saturday morning, 2nd Sgt Lim was on his way from Jurong West to Kallang for a physical training class. He never made it. At about 7.45am, his scooter collided with another motorbike along the Pan-Island Exrpressway near Jurong West.
The other rider fell towards the road verge but 2nd Sgt Lim fell on the road and was run over by a lorry. He was rushed unconscious to National University Hospital, and was pronounced dead at about 8.50am.
Police are investigating the incident.
Fellow soldiers remember 2nd Sgt Lim as a careful rider who left his Vespa Scooter in the carpark whenever the roads were wet.
First Warrant Officer Lem added: 'He had a very upright character and was a well-disciplined soldier.'
'To me he had all the good points a commander would want in his men: he was hardworking, reliable, dependable and able to get on well with his colleagues. We will miss him.'

2007-10-21T20:05:00.000+08:00

Yesterday morning, one fine young chap name Sergeant Chee Wee passed away due to a car accident. His parents did not manage to receive the information first hand till hours later because their parents could not even afford a mobile phone.

Those in Maju camp should already know this, and this is why coming wednesday no RT/IPPT. I've donated some money, but there is so much one person can do. He have ZERO insurance, not even the SAF one.

I urge those who have the heart and will to help monetarily, please step up and contribute. Those who want to donate, can donate in Cash or Cheque. Every cent counts, 10cent 20cent also can, $10, $20 even better.

His family is in a very bad shape and have one younger brother to support. Those who are willing to help, please contact me.

Lets find a way to support others.

(This is also a good reminder to us: no matter how much money you can make, you can never use it if you are not around. Say 'I love you' to your love ones as and when you can, cos you'll never know what will happen next) Thank You for your support.

-SQ009-

MAMPOS

2007-10-20T15:42:00.000+08:00

Reuters Business Week

2007-10-20T12:08:00.000+08:00

Black Monday 20 years later

2007-10-19T13:17:00.001+08:00

2007-10-18T23:02:00.000+08:00

Some factors u guys wanna take note:

1. USDJPY broke 116, its now trading at 115 region (quite dangerous)
2. India market fell as much as 9.25% on wed, SSE fell 3% today. Kinda scary
3. Regional market on huge swings now
4. US on Qly reporting season, will see violent swings
5. This might be the A of ABC on Elliot
6. Unless something terrible happens, market should still be okay.

For now, just be nimble and monitor your counters closely.

SQ is cautious, eyes stick to monitor now

Singapore Banks' 3Q Net Pfts May Drop Sharply

2007-10-16T10:26:00.001+08:00

0217 GMT [Dow Jones] Credit Suisse keeps Singapore banks at Overweight, but warns 3Q07 net profits may drop sharply if they decide to "kitchen sink" mark-to-market provisions on CDOs in P&L. Says profit declines could be as much as 40% on-quarter, 25% on-year. Says if banks do "kitchen sink," market should take it positively as with U.S. banks; notes all three will still show decent profits and there should be no dent to Tier 1 capitalizations. Says operationally, loan growth momentum likely continued, but DBS (D05.SG), OCBC (O39.SG) margins may have softened a little on Prime-HIBOR, lower SIBOR. Says also conservative on fee and treasury income, but notes capital market activity not hit so badly. Sets DBS target price at S$28, OCBC target at S$10.80, UOB (U11.SG) target at S$28. Currently, DBS flat at S$22.40, UOB down 0.9% at S$22.50, OCBC down 1.1% at S$9.25. (LES)

2007-10-15T19:19:00.000+08:00

If you use the pennant theory, conservative TP is about 70cents. I'm holding on to my beng beng tight. The big money is still inside as u can see from the vol.

China raises banking reserve ratio requirement to 13 percent

2007-10-14T02:45:00.000+08:00

BEIJING: China's central bank announced on Saturday that it would raise the reserve ratio requirement for commercial banking institutes to 13 percent in a further effort to curb excessive liquidity. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) said in a statement on its website that it would raise the reserve ratio by 0.5 percent as of October 25, in a move to "strengthen liquidity management in the banking system and check the excessive credit growth". The reserve hike, which requires banks to set aside more money in reserves, was the eighth such rise this year. Beijing is struggling to put the brakes on the world's fourth-largest economy which is expected to register double-digit growth over the first three quarters when gross domestic product (GDP) figures are released later this month. The reserve hike comes after the central bank announced a 27 basis point rise in deposit and lending interest rates on September 14, the fifth interest rate hike of the year. Despite repeated measures to cool growth that is largely driven by excess liquidity, China's economy expanded by a blistering 11.9 percent in the second quarter after registering 11.1 percent growth in 2006. The rate adjustment come as preliminary third quarter data show that overheating will remain a problem for a government which has increasingly sought to rein in growth to curb inflation, already at a decade high. On Friday, the customs bureau announced China's accumulated trade surplus from January to September was 185.7 billion dollars, exceeding the 177.5 billion dollar surplus for all of last year. The swelling surplus helped China's foreign exchange reserves, already the world's largest, to surge 45.1 percent in the first nine months of the year to 1.43 trillion dollars, the central bank added. Crucial to further government measures will be the third quarter inflation data to be released later this month with other leading indicators, Credit Suisse economist Tao Dong said. "We expect some stabilisation in CPI (consumer price index) inflation in September, as pork prices have declined and base effect kicks in, so there is a 50:50 chance that the PBoC may opt to hold its fire (on interest rate hikes) for now," Tao said. But in the medium term, Tao said bank interest rates would rise as long as inflation ensured that negative real interest rates were exacerbating liquidity by forcing bank deposits into the property and stock markets.

2007-10-12T17:48:00.001+08:00

TA outing

2007-10-10T05:55:00.000+08:00

It will be held on saturday 11am in AIA building. Posted the map just in case, for those who get lost easily. Address is No. 1 Keong Saik Road.

Please sms me if you have not done so, so that I can get sufficient food for everyone. I dun accept visa or masters ah haha, so please set aside zhun zhun $5 on that day.

Wish u guys huat!

another example of cups and handle

2007-10-09T22:54:00.000+08:00

a better example in fact...

I loaded at 0.390 today

Cups and Handles

2007-10-09T20:05:00.000+08:00

To caveman & love2bake:

A reference to cup and handle:

The formation occurs after a trend change, where a series of rising peaks and troughs is followed by a reversal of the price trend. A downtrend of lower peaks and lower troughs form the left side of the cup, rounds out and later begins a new rising trend so that a cup is formed. The cup is in the shape of a "U". The handle is a drop in prices after the right side of the lip of the cup has been reached. The handle can have a variety of shapes and can consist of double handles and high handles.

As long as the price does not fall back through the 200 day moving average in forming the handle, the expectation for the pattern is for prices to rise after completion of the handle.

Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation or the less upside potential.

Cup: The cup should be "U" shaped and resemble a bowl or rounding bottom. A "V" shaped bottom would be considered too sharp of a reversal to qualify. The softer "U" shape ensures that the cup is a consolidation pattern with valid support at the bottom of the "U". The perfect pattern would have equal highs on both sides of the cup, but this is not always the case.

Cup Depth: Ideally, the depth of the cup should retrace 1/3 or less of the previous advance. However, with volatile markets and over-reactions, the retracement could range from 1/3 to 1/2. In extreme situations, the maximum retracement could be 2/3, which is conforms with Dow Theory.

Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement is, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup.

Duration: The cup can extend from 1 to 6 months, sometimes longer on weekly charts. The handle can be from 1 week to many weeks and ideally completes within 1-4 weeks.

Volume: There should be a substantial increase in volume on the breakout above the handle's resistance.

Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.
As with most chart patterns, it is more important to capture the essence of the pattern than the particulars. The cup is a bowl-shaped consolidation and the handle is a short pullback followed by a breakout with expanding volume. A cup retracement of 62% may not fit the pattern requirements, but a particular stock's pattern may still capture the essence of the Cup with Handle.

So lets take a look at SP chem:

1. SP chem is indeed in a cup and handle formation.
2. The big monies are still inside, no significant signs of unloading.
3. Today formed a small hammer.

Possible cheonging soon, but if it breaks the 200ma (the purple line) which is currently at $1.10 then watch out for more downside.

Whiteboard:
EP: $1.18 - 1.22 (EP2: $1.30 - $1.40 << When cup top broken, confirmation of C&H)
TP1: $1.24
TP2: $1.35
TP3: $1.78
CP: 50% at 6 bids, 100% at $1.10

2007-10-09T12:09:00.000+08:00

Whiteboard

2007-10-09T10:26:00.000+08:00

Wish all Huat! Disclaimer: I will not be responsible for any losses incurred. Please take my postings as reference and not as inducement

My Whiteboard (Current Holdings @ Avg Px):
1. LC Dev @ 0.538
2. CES @ 0.830
3. LottVis [observe, no holdings yet]
4. BakerTech @ 0.440
5. ChinaAElec @ 0.73

Observe List:
1. GIFB
2. Yong Nam
3. Japan Land
4. SMB United
5. C20

updated as @ 9th Oct 2007

~Laisse Joindre Le Club Du Millionnaire~

Standby (part 2)

2007-10-08T17:45:00.001+08:00

That weird feeling is still there. Will continues to take profit and relook at my portfolio and monitor regional market before i go in again

got a weird feeling...I'm going to lock in my profits within this week. Sell in Strength Sell in Strength.HSI laosai 1500 points was rather healthy... STI not even close to 20MA.I will lock in my profits first and step back, look at market again before i enter again.

Wealth And You/TA Workshop

2007-10-08T02:53:00.000+08:00

I will combine two discussion/workshop into one.

Tentatively set at saturday 11am, we discuss... take a short break... go for lunch, network a little, and continue on our discussion.

I try to book a room in my office and try to get a caterer for lunch.

A few of the topics on that day:
1. Wealth creation and what kind of strategy and mind set you should adopt
2. Gapping theory, understanding EOD and intraday gapping
3. Candlestick (part 1) Understanding Candle sticks and reversal signals
4. J&J, WhiteBoard and BlackBoard (looks like this will stay for all future discussions to benefit the new 'members')
5. Market outlook for the week ahead

any other topics that you guys wanna find out?

If all wants lunch catered then I will find out how much issit and will inform u guys again.

Most likely each person less than $5 for lunch/drinks/booking of meeting room. So hope u all dont mind.

Will also be printing some 'notes' for you guys, slightly different for the last TA outing. Will also be looking at local counters as reference.

Will commence if above 10 participants.

contact me @ 9297 9453/9185 7997 if you are interested.

key in [your name][number of people coming]

Thanks!

~Donald~

~Laisse Joindre Le Club Du Millionnaire~

Standby

2007-10-08T02:19:00.001+08:00

I got a weird feeling...

I'm going to lock in my profits within this week. Sell in Strength Sell in Strength.

HSI laosai 1500 points was rather healthy... STI not even close to 20MA.

I will lock in my profits first and step back, look at market again before i enter again.

Taking a closer look at the growth of unit trusts.

2007-10-07T19:33:00.000+08:00

Sun, Oct 07, 2007 The Straits Times

FINANCIAL agents are now gunning for a slice of the CPF pie before rules kick in on April 1 to reduce the sum available for private investment. After that, a Central Provident Fund member will not be allowed to invest the first $20,000 of his Ordinary and Special accounts savings under the CPF Investment Scheme (CPFIS). Money already invested through the CPFIS will not be affected. Under the new rules, members will receive additional interest of 1 percentage point on the first $60,000 in their accounts. Thus, an interest rate of 3.5 per cent will apply to the first $20,000 in the Ordinary Account (OA); and about 5 per cent will apply to the next $40,000 in the Special, Medisave and Retirement accounts (SMRA). How CPFIS funds have done THE Sunday Times commissioned fund data house Morningstar Asia to assess the performance of CPFIS-approved unit trusts over a 10-year period up to the end of June this year. Note that the table provided does not reflect when a fund joined CPFIS. Its track record might range from three to 10 years, but it may have joined the scheme two years ago, for example. Of the 53 funds with a 10-year history, 43 grew over 5 per cent every year in the period studied. Of the 156 funds with a five-year history, 128 beat this growth. In the three years to June 30, 145 funds out of 185 have managed at least a 5 per cent annual return. While underperforming funds tend to be excluded from the CPFIS, it seems clear that, in absolute numbers, more funds have beaten the annual 5 per cent returns in recent years. Two main factors, timing and fund type, affect a fund's performance. Timing IT MATTERS when an investor enters and exits. The initial years of the decade under review contained significant events that sent markets south. IPP Financial Advisers investment director Albert Lam cited three:
# The Asian financial crisis in 1997-98 when the baht's devaluation triggered a currency crash.
# The bursting of the dot.com bubble in 2000, which hit markets worldwide.
# The Sars crisis in 2003, which hurt the economies of Singapore, Hong Kong and China.
Asian markets have generally performed better over the five and three years to June 30. Mr Giri Mudeliar, the executive director of the Investment Management Association of Singapore (Imas), said: 'Asian markets rode the upward wave and had better results. Most major markets bottomed in 2002/03 and have been on an upward trend since because of robust economic growth, rising risk appetite and liquidity.' In the five years to June 30, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 105 per cent, against 43 per cent over the 10-year period. Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) rose 129 per cent over the five years, against 85 per cent over the 10 years, he noted. Risks Given the various crises in the past decade, a person who invested in 1998 and cashed out in 2002 would probably have gone into the red. But if he had held on until today, chances are, he would have been better off. Take technology manager Henry Lee, who in 2003 lost half of his $20,000 investment in a Singapore fund. The STI was at a high in January 2000 when he put in the money, but the tech bubble burst that March and Sars hit in 2003, driving the STI down. Fund type GOING by Morningstar data, most of the funds that have achieved more than 5 per cent in the past decade are all-equities funds. Mr Joseph Chong, the chief executive of financial advisory firm New Independent, said these funds have invested in regions or sectors where the stock markets have done well over a 10-year period, despite the deep trough of 2000-03. 'These markets have more than recovered from their losses. They include, for example, global, European and Asia ex-Japan equities, but not Japanese equities,' he said. Also, the returns of these funds have mirrored the average returns of, say, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the past 10 years. The Dow has grown about 9 per cent a year, and the STI about 8 per cent, added Mr Lam. As most of the 43 funds are all-equities funds, it is not surprising their returns exceeded 5 per cent a year. Thus, someone who had invested in the more conservative balanced and fixed income funds would have ended up with far lower returns than someone investing in equity funds. This is why Fundsupermart research manager Mah Ching Cheng suggests that conservative investors take full advantage of the better rate of returns for the first $60,000 of CPF savings by leaving them with the Board. For instance, a very conservative portfolio - 20 per cent equities, 80 per cent fixed income - would be less likely to beat the new CPF benchmark rate than a more aggressive portfolio. Ms Mah said more aggressive investors with a longer time horizon, say, five to 10 years, have 'the option of investing the rest of their OA and SA monies, once the $20,000 compulsory requirements for OA and SA are met'. Risks Higher risks, higher returns. Investors need to understand their own risk appetites and decide if they can stomach the volatility that equities funds can experience. Morningstar head of research Jessy Yang advises investors to check out the standard deviation of a fund's returns over, say, a three-year period. This figure serves as a useful indicator of its potential volatility and risk. Take a fund with a standard deviation of six and average annual return of 10 per cent. The figures mean there is a greater probability that the fund's return will range between 4 per cent and 16 per cent. The higher the standard deviation, the greater the potential volatility and risk of the fund. The head of fund analytics at wealth manager Providend, Mr Ernest Low, said: 'If significant volatility affects a person's mental health and contributes to bad decisions like selling low and buying high, then it is better for that person to keep his assets in conservative or low-risk investments.' Investment tips MR MUDELIAR said Imas has always maintained that investing CPF monies in the open market is a risk and that investors should get advice from financial advisers and stick to the road map drawn up. 'Do not waver and change from one market blip to another. Keep to the same doctor and do not doctor-jump when you are too impatient for quick remedies,' he said. As at end-June, there were 220 unit trusts and 196 investment-linked insurance products. Mr Mudeliar advised investors to go for a good spread to lower the risks, to be sector-sensitive and to go for the long haul. Imas suggests that older people keep their money in the CPF and enjoy the risk-free returns. 'Life outside the CPF is too complicated to justify the marginal returns,' added Mr Mudeliar

LC Dev (Part 2)

2007-10-07T12:57:00.000+08:00

Whack! (With CP set of course, CP for this i set 8 bids)

Possible upside close to 84 Cents.

Trade with eyes open, dun walk with eyes close, later kena BaLuKuh when you hit lamp post

New Changes!

2007-10-07T01:29:00.001+08:00

Hope you guys like the new layout.

Now I know why IT guys are really stressed... One tiny problem took me 1 hr plus to solve.

I keep saying CANI, Kaizen... so time to do some major upgrading on my blog.

I hope you guys will like it and I will continue to work hard

Upgrading in progress

2007-10-06T21:40:00.001+08:00

Blog is under upgrading... Please bear with me

Weekends!

2007-10-06T11:50:00.000+08:00

Its weekend guys! Take a break... enjoy the video =)